TOP SECRET
COPY NO. 5
J.I.C.
REPORT BY THE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE, USAF
to the
JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
on
UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS
THE PROBLEM
1. To advise the Joint Intelligence Committee of the findings
of the Directorate of Intelligence, USAF, regarding the sightings of
unidentified aerial objects and the Air Force organization established
for further investigation and solution of the problem.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
2. Following the great number of reported sightings of flying
discs during the summer of 1947, Hq, Air Material Command, in a
letter dated 23 September 1947, requested that the Commanding General,
Army Air Forces, issue a directive assigning a priority, security
classification and code name for a detailed study of flying disc
reports. Hq, Air Material Command explained that their action was
based on the opinion that phenomena reported appeared to be real and
that there were objects in existence which would approximate the shape
of a disc. AMC concluded that some incidents might be caused by
natural phenomena but that some incidents described characteristics
which suggested evasive tactics. Awaiting a specific directive,
Hq, AMC continued to collect information on flying disc incidents in
order to more clearly define the nature of the phenomena. On the
22nd of December 1947, in a memorandum, "Analysis of Flying Disc
Reports." The Director of Intelligence concurred with Air Material
Command's recommendation and forwarded their letter to the Director
of Research and Development, DCS/M for reply.
3. In a letter dated 30 December 1947, the Director of Research
and Development, DCS/M, advised the Commanding General, AMC, that Air
Force policy was not to ignore reports of sightings and phenomena in
the atmosphere but to recognize that part of its mission is to collect,
evaluate and act on information of this nature. To implement this
policy it was directed that Hq, Air Material Command set up a project
with the purpose of collecting, collating, evaluating, and distributing
to interested government agencies and contractors, all information
concerning sightings and phenomena in the atmosphere which could
be construed to be of concern to the national security. This directive
assigned a priority of 2-A to the project, a RESTRICTED classification,
and a code name of "SIGN".
4. At Air Material Command the Technical Intelligence Division
was assigned the responsibility for accomplishing this mission with
the full assistance of all divisions and activities within Air Material
Command to permit successful completion of the project. The cooperation
of the Army, Navy, Coast Guard and F.B.I. was solicited in order to
facilitate the forwarding and investigation of all reports. Arrangements
were effected for handling such reports directly with Air Material Command.
5. In addition to the collection, analysis and investigation
activities directed by the project personnel at Hq, Air Material Command,
Air Intelligence Memorandum dated 6 August 1948, subject: "Flying
Saucers", required that a study be made by the Air Intelligence Division
to examine the pattern of tactics of reported flying saucers and develop
conclusions as to their probability. The results of this analysis were
prepared as Air Intelligence Division (DI/USAF-ONI) Study No. 203,
"Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States." The
Directorate of Intelligence has maintained close liaison with Project
"SIGN" activities in order that appropriate staff sections of Headquarters,
USAF may be adequately advised on the entire subject of
unidentified aerial phenomena reports.
6. The code name of "SIGN" for the project was changed to
"GRUDGE" by a request on 16 December 1948 by the Director of
Research and Development, DCS/M, Hq, USAF. "GRUDGE" under the U.S.
Joint Services Code Word Index refers to the title "Detailed Study
of Flying Discs."
ASSUMPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
7. Hq, Air Material Command will continue its investigations
under project "GRUDGE" and the Directorate of Intelligence, USAF,
will maintain close liaison with that Command in order to advise
Staff sections on the subject of unidentified aerial objects.
8. See Appendix "A" for discussion of the problem and conclusions drawn therefrom.
RECOMMENDATIONS
9. It is recommended that the Joint Intelligence Committee:
a. Furnish the Director of Intelligence, USAF, with comments
on this paper.
APPENDIX "A"
UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS
FACTS AND DISCUSSION
1. As of 10 March 1949, a total of 256 incidents involving
unidentified aerial objects had been recorded, under Project "SIGN".
The majority of these were domestic observations but there were many
from reports from foreign sources. In each incident the observers
have been interrogated by investigators and the results have been
analyzed by technical personnel.
2. Condensed summaries have been prepared on each incident to
provide basic information to individuals and agencies having a
responsibility or interest in the project.
3. The extreme lack of accurate observed details and the unpredictable
occurrence of incidents have made positive identification extremely difficult.
Data on unidentified aerial objects has grouped the incidents as follows:
- 23.3% - Discs
- 43.0% - Spherical or elliptical shape (including balls of fire)
- 6.0% - Cylindrical shape
- 2.5% - Winged objects
- 32.2% - Shapes other than those above
4. In order to identify ordinary and conventional objects, that
have probably been included in the list of reported incidents, graphical
methods have been applied as follows:
5. Prepared graphical data includes:
- a. Charts concerning unidentified aerial objects, to indicate:
- (1) Type of object observed
- (2) Vicinity in which particular type of object was observed
- (3) Direction of flight
- b. Locations of guided missiles, research and related centers.
- c. Locations of airlines, airfields, both military and commercial.
- d. Locations of radio beacon stations.
- e. Known or projected radar stations from which reports and assistance may be derived.
- f. Meteorological stations from which balloon release data, radiosonde or theodolite readings may be obtained.
- g. Past, current, and projected celestial phenomena.
- h. Flight paths of migratory birds
6. A psychological analysis of the reported data is being prepared
by Aero-Medical Laboratory, AMC, for the purpose of determining those
incidents that are probably based upon errors of the human mind
and senses. A preliminary verbal report from the professional psychologists
indicates that a considerable number of incidents can be explained as
ordinary occurrences that have been misrepresented, as the result of human errors.
7. Specialist services, supplementary to those of AMC technical
offices, are being provided by a number of agencies.
8. The Air Weather Service has reviewed incident data and has
provided the information that 24 of the first 172 coincide,
both with respect to location and time, with the release of weather balloons.
9. The Ohio State University has contracted with AMC to supply
astronomical services in an effort to identify meteors, planetoids and
associated phenomena. Professor Hynek, Ohio State University Astrophysicist
and head of the University Observatory has reviewed the incident summary sheets.
10. Preliminary report of Dr. Hynek, indicates that 30 per cent
of the first 200 incidents are positively attributable to astronomical
phenomena, and 45 per cent could be explained on the basis of such
phenomena or the sighting of weather balloons and other objects. This gives a
total of 75 per cent of all incidents with possible explanation.
11. Members of the Scientific Advisory Board to the Chief of
Staff, USAF, who have provided consultant services to Project
Grudge", include Dr. Irving Langmuir, Chief, General Electric
Research and Dr. G. E. Valley of MIT.
12. Dr. G. E. Valley has displayed an active interest in Project
"Grudge" to the extent of reviewing the reported incidents and writing
an overall type of analysis in which he groups the various objects and
then analyses each group from the standpoint of scientific feasibility.
13. Inasmuch as various surmises have been advanced that some of
the reported observations may have represented "space ships" or satellite
vehicles, a special study has been initiated with the Rand Corporation,
under the Rand Project, to provide an analysis from this standpoint
and also to provide fundamental information, pertaining to the basic
design and performance characteristics that might distinguish a possible
"space ship." Rand Corporation has also informed AMC that their
analysis of all incidents leads them to the conclusion that there is
nothing in any reported incidents which would go against a rational
explanation.
14. The Weather Bureau Library of the Department of Commerce has
supplied information on "ball lightning." This was requested because
of the belief by some persons that some of the observations may have
represented "ball lightning." It appears that the subject of "ball
lightning" occupies an undetermined status and authorities are not at
all convinced that such a phenomenon actually exists.
15. On 8 April 1949 the repeated occurrence of green fireball
phenomena in New Mexico was discussed with Dr. Joseph Kaplan, member
of the USAF Scientific Advisory Board. This phenomenon has caused
considerable concern on the part of Hq. Fourth Army and has occupied
the interests of Dr. Lincoln LaPaz of the University of New Mexico.
Dr. LaPaz believes that the phenomena are not meteorites. Because of
Dr. LaPaz' outstanding ability for accurate observation and his experiences
in identification of meteoritic phenomena, Dr. Kaplan expressed the belief
that the green fireball phenomena should be further investigated. Dr. Kaplan's
views and this phenomena were discussed on 12 April 1948 with Dr. Theodore
von Karman, Chairman, USAF Scientific Advisory Board, who feels that the
problem is more properly in the field of upper atmosphere research than
the field of intelligence.
16. A summary of the incidents reported would indicate that:
- a. All incidents which coincide with explainable aerial
activities or recorded natural phenomena should be eliminated from
further consideration.
- b. Creditable unexplained incidents involving light phenomena
should be further investigated and analyzed by highly competent
scientists who can establish the identity either within or without the
limits of known natural phenomena.
- c. Creditable unexplained incidents which might involve
the use of atomic powered craft of u(nu)sual design should be considered
jointly by the Atomic Energy Commission and highly competent aerodynamicists
to determine the necessity for further consideration of
such incidents by National Defense Intelligence Agencies.
CONCLUSIONS
17. The majority of reported incidents are reliable to the extent
that they have involved the sighting of some object or light phenomenon.
18. In spite of the lack of accurate data provided by witnesses,
the majority of reported incidents have been caused by misidentification
of weather balloons, high altitude balloons with lights and/or
electronic equipment, meteors, bolides, and the planet Venus.
19. There are numerous reports from reliable and competent observers
for which a conclusive explanation has not been made. Some
of these involve descriptions which would place them in the category
of new manifestations of probable natural phenomena but others involve
configurations and described performance which might conceivably
represent an advanced aerodynamical development. A few unexplained
incidents surpass these limits of credibility.
20. It is unlikely that a foreign power would expose a superior
aerial weapon by a prolonged ineffectual penetration of the United States.
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